Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
