Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
